ELECTION POLITICS SIDELINE BUDGET TALKS, AT LEAST FOR NOW. Budget activity to pick up quickly later this week …with a rush to secure an agreement by Friday’s deadline

By Tom Chorneau, SI&A Cabinet Report | http://bit.ly/LjEb93

Wednesday, June 6, 2012  ::  With so many lawmakers preoccupied with today’s June primary, budget deliberations in the Capitol in advance of next week’s constitutional deadline have come to a halt – despite a number of major issues unresolved, especially education funding.

But there are strong indicators that legislative leaders are committed to meeting their obligation of putting an approved spending plan on Gov. Jerry Brown’s desk by midnight next Friday.

One big reason, observers said yesterday, is lawmakers want to get paid.

“I think the new state initiative that requires action by June 15 is a powerful motivator,” said Steve Maviglio, veteran Democratic consultant and communications adviser to former Gov. Gray Davis and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez.

Indeed, Proposition 25 allows passage of a state budget by majority vote – as long as no new taxes are included. But the measure also prohibits lawmakers from collecting their salary if they fail to act by the mid-June deadline.

And there appears to be no interest in testing that law this year.

Reaching final agreement in the remaining days, even among the Democratic majority, won’t be easy. There are many issues still to consider, including the governor’s plan to restructure school funding for which there is no consensus yet among districts, the employee unions and many lawmakers.

But pressing ahead on the budget before Tuesday also presented pitfalls – if only because of the uncertainty surrounding the election.

For one, this election marks the return of the open primary to California – a system briefly in use during the late 1990s before it was shot down by the courts. Revived by voters in 2010, the open system requires the top two finishers in the primary to advance to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation.

Secondly, many incumbents are running in new districts – the result of a census update and new district boundaries. For some, that means running before unfamiliar voters against local favorites. For others it means running against another incumbent or recently termed-out lawmaker.

Election officials are also forecasting a low – perhaps very low – voter turnout, which adds yet another wildcard.

“There could be some really surprising results,” said Raphael Sonenshein, director of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at the California State University, Los Angeles.

With all of this in mind, legislative leaders were careful not to add to the political cauldron by forcing members to vote on critical budget issues just ahead of the election. The problem was not only of getting distracted lawmakers to focus and vote on the key spending issues but also the likelihood that those votes would quickly become election fodder.

Look for activity around the budget to pick up quickly later this week, insiders said, with an all-out rush to secure an agreement by Friday’s deadline.

It is also likely that the adopted spending plan will largely reflect Brown’s May proposal given the biggest budget decision for 2012-13 will be made by voters in November. That said, lawmakers have, in the past under similar circumstances, chosen to construct their plan so that they can revisit its major components at a later date – perhaps even after November.

“The Legislature is much better at incremental rather than large sweeping changes,” said Maviglio. “What might happen is that they will pass something outlining reform but leaving the details for later and that’s where the devil usually lies.”