Friday, October 19, 2007


...kinda sounds like a Robert Ludlum Novel, doesn't it?

Los Angeles Unified School District

Budget Services and Financial Planning Division

Date: October 18, 2007

To: Board Members

From: Roger Rasmussen

Subject: 2007-08 NORM DAY ENROLLMENT

Every October, LAUSD counts the number of students enrolled in our schools. This year, LAUSD’s official “norm day” for K-12 schools was October 3. 1

For schools that are not fiscally independent charters, school staffing is adjusted based on their norm day student enrollments.

This year’s total norm day enrollment for LAUSD K-12 schools was 694,288. Of this total, 653,215 students (94%) were enrolled in regular LAUSD schools and 41,073 students (6%) were enrolled in fiscally independent charter schools.

The attached table shows 2007-08 enrollments by grade level and compares 2007-08 enrollments to the prior year (2006-07). Overall, LAUSD lost 14,173 students (2.0% of total enrollment). Enrollments in regular LAUSD schools were down 20,285 students, while enrollments at charter schools were up 6,112 students.

Losses at regular LAUSD schools were proportionally greater at elementary and middle schools than at high schools.

Enrollments are actually higher than last year in grades 11 and 12.

Norm day enrollments for regular LAUSD schools are a bout 2,500 students higher than we projected in the 2007-08 Final Budget.

This is in contrast to 2006-07 when norm day enrollment was lower than we had projected.

In the next few weeks, we will be developing new multi-year enrollment projections based on 2007-08 norm day.

The most powerful predictor of K-12 enrollment is birth data.

Births in Los Angeles County have declined sharply since 1990 but are presently stable.

Enrollment growth at fiscally independent charters reduces enrollments in regular LAUSD schools by
about 1% per year.

Economic conditions also affect K-12 enrollment.

The availability of jobs and the availability and cost of housing in the Los Angeles area can encourage families to move here or to move elsewhere. That is why we are usually able to predict the general direction of enrollment changes, but rarely able to predict exact student enrollments from year to year.

[digitally signed] Roger Rasmussen


1 Enrollment is counted earlier for tracks at multi-track year-round schools that start in July.

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