LURKING IN THE BUSHES: Is the “Florida Education Miracle just another “Texas Education Miracle”?

…and who do you have to sleep with around here to avoid the next miracle?

Julian Vasquez Heilig, Ph.D is an Associate Professor of Educational Policy and Planning at the University of Texas, Austin, TX

In Lurking in the Bushes: Peeking at Florida Education Miracle [http://bit.ly/VgQXee] in Cloaking Inequity - Dr. Heilig’s Education and Public Policy Blog  - he writes:

November 28, 2012  ::  There is another education presidential candidate lurking in the Bushes with an education “miracle” being discussed extensively in the media and elsewhere. Critics have pointed out that the miracle in Florida is no more real than the education miracle in Texas that spawned No Child Left Behind a decade ago— another elegant illusion of numbers? Some say the skeptics are wrong in their analyses of recent educational success in Florida. So what is the real story?

As we were preparing the Education: Texas vs. California vs. New York vs. Nation policy report, we also concurrently gathered data for Florida that ultimately ended up on the cutting floor. For your educational policy and descriptive statistical pleasure I have now included the data from the past decade for Florida below. I won’t extensively discuss the Texas, California and New York results or detail the methodology because we have already done so here.

Note: Florida did not give the NAEP in 2000. If you know why, please pass that along.  smf: The Florida Dept of Ed says: “Florida has participated every year in state NAEP since 1990 except for 2000 (the year the FCAT was expanded to include Grades 3–10)” http://bit.ly/Uecm2W

The 4th grade NAEP scores is where Jeb gained his educational policy credentials. Reuters stated:

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush soared to rock star status in the education world on the strength of a chart. A simple graph, it tracked fourth-grade reading scores. In 1998, when Bush was elected governor, Florida kids scored far below the national average. By the end of his second term, in 2007, they were far ahead, with especially impressive gains for low-income and minority students.

So let’s get to it.

4th Grade NAEP Read
State	2002	2009	CHANGE
California	205.9	209.8	3.8
New York	222.4	224.4	1.9
Texas	216.9	218.9	1.9
Florida	214.4	225.7	11.3
National Rank: 4th Grade NAEP Read
State	2002	2009	CHANGE
California	41.0	48.0	-7
New York	12.0	15.0	-3
Texas	29.0	33.0	-4
Florida	31.0	10.0	21

4th Grade NAEP Math
State	2000	2009	CHANGE
California	213.6	231.7	18.1
New York	226.6	240.6	14.1
Texas	232.7	240.5	7.8
Florida	N/A	241.9	N/A
National Rank: 4th Grade NAEP Math
State	2000	2009	CHANGE
California	40.0	45.0	-5
New York	22.0	26.0	-4
Texas	6.0	27.0	-21
Florida	N/A	10.0	N/A

In reading, Florida outperformed California, but lagged behind Texas and New York. Florida increased their ranking from 31st in the nation to 10th in the nation. In math you see a similar trend in 4th grade. Florida showed the highest scores in 2009 of the most populous states and were again ranked 10th in the nation.

Of course there is criticism of these data. As noted above, Dr. Walt Haney who debunked the Texas miracle attributes the Florida miracle scores in 4th grade to retention in 3rd grade. Others have argued that the NAEP scores are valid in Florida regardless of the ~10% of students that are held back in the Sunshine State. So lets move on and see if we observe these stupendous 4th grade results elsewhere in the Florida data.

8th Grade NAEP Read
State	2002	2009	CHANGE
California	250.5	252.6	2.2
New York	263.9	264.3	0.3
Texas	262.1	260.4	-1.7
Florida	261.1	264.4	3.3
National Rank: 8th Grade NAEP Read
State	2002	2009	CHANGE
California	41.0	49.0	-8
New York	22.0	31.0	-9
Texas	26.0	34.0	-8
Florida	29.0	30.0	1

8th Grade NAEP Math
State	2000	2009	CHANGE
California	262.2	270.4	8.3
New York	276.3	282.6	6.3
Texas	274.8	286.7	11.8
Florida	N/A	279.3	N/A
National Rank: 8th Grade NAEP Math
State	2000	2009	CHANGE
California	34.0	46.0	-12
New York	19.0	31.0	-12
Texas	22.0	18.0	4
Florida	N/A	34.0	N/A

In 8th grade reading, Florida performed above Texas and California and on par with New York and was ranked at 30th in the nation. In 8th grade math, Florida lagged behind New York and Texas, but outperformed California. Florida was ranked 34th in the nation in 2009 for 8th grade math. The 8th grade results are positive, but not outstanding like we observed in the 4th grade as the state falls below the halfway point at 30th and 34th in the nation.

Haney argued that NAEP scores are less important than understanding student progression through school. Thus, graduation is a more important measure of a state’s success. As a result, the analysis of data will now turn to U.S. Department of Education data that examines the number of high school graduates via the Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate (AFGR) for public schools in each of the most populous states.

Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate (AFGR)
	2001-2002	2008-2009	CHANGE
California	72.7	71.0	-2
Florida	63.4	68.9	5
New York	60.5	73.5	13
Texas	73.5	75.4	2
National Rank: Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate (AFGR)
	2001-2002	2008-2009	CHANGE
California	34	42	-8
Florida	45	44	1
New York	49	39	10
Texas	31	29	2

At the outset, the news appears to be good for Florida in the graduation data as they increased about 5% between 2001 and 2009. However, their graduation rate was the lowest of the most populous states and Florida remained 44th in the nation. Ouch!

Composite ACT
	2000	2010	CHANGE
California	21.4	22.2	0.8
New York	22.2	23.3	1.1
Texas	20.3	20.8	0.5
Florida	20.6	19.5	-1.1
National Rank: Composite ACT
	2000	2010	CHANGE
California	23	15	8
New York	4	4	0
Texas	39	33	6
Florida	36	49	-13

Does the news get better on the ACT? Um. No. Florida’s overall composite ACT scores decreased between 2000 and 2010. They were the lowest of the most populous states. They were ranked 49th in the nation.

Composite SAT
	2000	2010	CHANGE
California	1015	1017	2
New York	1000	983	-17
Texas	993	989	-4
Florida	998	994	-4
National Rank: Composite SAT
	2000	2010	CHANGE
California	36	35	1
New York	42	47	-5
Texas	47	44	3
Florida	45	41	4

How about the news on the SAT? Florida’s overall composite scores SAT scores also decreased. They outperform Texas and New York, but lagged behind California. Florida ranked 41st in the nation in composite SAT scores. (I know someone lurking out there is thinking that the SAT and ACT scores are dependent on composition of the sample, of course it does. But the data is the data)

In sum, NAEP scores seemed positive (with caveats). However, do NAEP scores determine the future of Florida’s students? When we consider the measures that actually matter for many kids’ lives: Graduation rates, ACT and SAT… It is only a peek— but you be the judge of the Florida miracle.