smf: today is day 56 in Gov.Brown’s 60 day budget process.
The reality behind recent budget rhetoric
by Kevin Yamamura,Sacramento Bee| http://bit.ly/hvnG5A
Published: Sunday, Mar. 6, 2011 - 12:00 am | Page 3A /Last Modified: Sunday, Mar. 6, 2011 - 2:26 pm
Between Gov. Jerry Brown's unusual appearance at a legislative hearing and the formation of an anti-tax caucus by 30 conservative lawmakers, the budget rhetoric has been flying. Kevin Yamamura of The Bee Capitol Bureau evaluates some of the statements:
Brown: "If you're going to have $25 billion in cuts, and you're going to cut four or five weeks of school, then I think people are very shocked if you didn't ask their permission."
Analysis: Cutting the school year by five or six weeks is highly unlikely.
K-12 schools could face a $4.5 billion reduction in funding if the taxes fall through, according to the Legislative Analyst's Office. Each billion-dollar cut translates into one week of school, so that could be Brown's interpretation.
Schools, however, have many ways other than cutting instruction to save money, such as raising the kindergarten age or increasing class size. Though many districts have cut the school year by as much as five days, teachers have fought such reductions, which translate into furloughs and lost instructional time.
Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, R-Dana Point (to Brown): "The only thing that you want 'yes' to, and the only thing the members on the other side of the aisle want 'yes' to – because they have a majority-party budget – is 'yes' to more taxes. And we can't go there."
Analysis: It's true that Democrats can pass all of the cuts on their own under Proposition 25, a 2010 initiative that allows a majority of lawmakers to approve budget bills. It's also generally true that Democrats need Republican votes only for the tax items in Brown's plan.
But need is different from want. Democrats have made it clear that they want the entire budget, including cuts, to pass on a bipartisan vote. Democrats believe they have accepted a high level of cuts in social services and higher education that Republicans should accept as well.
Sen. Tony Strickland, R-Moorpark: "A couple of years ago, we had an $84 billion general fund budget, and you didn't have to shut down K-12, you didn't have to shut down the UC and CSU system. This is all hyperbole ..."
Analysis: Strickland is referring to the 2009-10 budget. There are legitimate reasons why schools face more serious cuts this time around.
First, the federal government provided $3.6 billion in stimulus funding for K-12 schools and higher education to offset state education cuts two years ago. Most federal help has since gone away.
The 2009-10 budget also relied on one-time solutions and accounting tricks. Brown says he will reject such ideas, which means legislators would have to agree to more cuts.
Brown's countdown, Day 56: California GOP split on putting tax plan on ballot
by Kevin Yamamura, Sacramento Bee| http://bit.ly/hyiCUy
Published: Sunday, Mar. 6, 2011 - 12:00 am | Page 1A -Last Modified: Sunday, Mar. 6, 2011 - 2:25 pm
California Republican leaders are urging their lawmakers to stand firm against Gov. Jerry Brown's proposal for a June tax election in the name of rebuilding their party.
Beaten badly at the polls in November and holding barely a third of legislative seats, the GOP now finds itself divided over whether to make a deal with the Democratic governor.
Brown needs agreement from at least two Republicans in each house to ask voters to extend 2009 increases to sales, income and vehicle taxes.
The governor is clearly in a dealing mood.
Brown acknowledged Friday that he has met privately with a handful of Republicans in recent days. It's not yet clear they are ready to vote for the tax extensions or that Democrats are willing to give enough to satisfy their wishes.
But to Jon Fleischman, a California Republican Party vice chairman who runs the conservative FlashReport blog, nothing less than the future of the GOP is at stake. Only 31 percent of state voters were registered Republicans as of last October, compared with 44 percent registered as Democrats.
"The bottom line is, if the minority party wants to become the majority party, the first thing we have to do is act together as a team and unite around certain concepts," Fleischman said. "Frankly, if we can't unite around the idea that a massive tax increase in the midst of a recession is going to hurt jobs, we're never going to unite."
Besides, Fleischman wrote on his blog this week, "No one I know wants to divert enthusiasm, energy and resources away from 2012 (elections) to engage in (a) June battle against higher taxes, a battle in which Republicans and tax fighters would be outspent by 40 or 50 to 1."
Some in GOP perplexed
Republicans believe that rejecting taxes will force Democratic constituencies to splinter as labor unions and social service advocates fight for a smaller budget pie.
Brown pledged last month that he would demand an all-cuts budget if voters or lawmakers block the tax extensions. That likely would require major reductions to K-12 schools, community colleges and prisons, based on a Legislative Analyst's Office review.
"As long as government is expanding, they don't have to make difficult choices because everyone who sits around their table gets more and more money," said Ron Nehring, California Republican Party chairman. "When tax hikes come off the table, Democrats have to make difficult choices."
Thirty of 42 GOP lawmakers organized a "Taxpayers Caucus" last month and vowed to oppose Brown's proposal, and conservative activists have rebuked the 12 who did not sign on.
The strategy has other Republicans scratching their heads.
"I think even from the most conservative fiscal perspective, they should explore what the governor and Democrats are willing to concede," said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist who advised Brown's gubernatorial opponent, Meg Whitman. "They have more leverage than they've had at any time arguably over the last decades."
Republicans such as Stutzman see Brown's pledge to put any taxes on the ballot as a perfect opportunity for Republicans.
"It's leverage fabricated out of a campaign promise enforced by a Democratic governor," he said. "It's such an amazing amount of good luck and good fortune that's not being explored, that to me it's just astounding."
He suggests Republicans ask for a laundry list of long-sought changes: pension reductions, a cap on future state spending, fewer civil service protections and softer regulations on businesses.
Steinberg open to talks
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, said Democrats are open to discussing many of those ideas, including pensions and a spending restraint. "That's a legitimate discussion to have," he said. "The challenge, of course, is going from the general to the specific, but that's what discussion and negotiation are all about."
Sen. Tony Strickland, R-Moorpark, who leads the "Taxpayers Caucus," said he supports the long-term changes but believes they shouldn't be part of a negotiation for tax extensions. "That's like cutting off your arm to reattach your toe," he said.
Former Assemblyman Roger Niello, who voted for taxes in the 2009 budget, lost a GOP Senate primary against Sen. Ted Gaines, R-Roseville, who did not vote for the tax deal.
It's difficult to say how much a vote to place tax extensions on the ballot would cost individual GOP lawmakers. But that uncertainty – especially in light of election changes next year that include independently drawn districts and a new primary system – has lawmakers on edge.
Niello urges broader view
California Chamber of Commerce President Allan Zaremberg, an influential voice as the state's leading business emissary, urged lawmakers Thursday to work toward a "comprehensive" budget deal. He also suggested his group could help lawmakers who become politically vulnerable for making a difficult vote.
Niello disputes that his loss was a result of his tax vote – he says it was an inability to reach enough voters in the wide-ranging district. But he said Republicans shouldn't be a one-issue party, and that it also needs to work for cutting regulations, allowing more private contracting of services and changing the pension system.
"Is our philosophic profile so narrow that all of those things are inferior to the notion of no taxes?" Niello asked. "I think our philosophy is broader than that, and obviously so did Ronald Reagan."
Editorial: Let voters make call on tax extension
from The Sacramento Bee | http://bit.ly/fBqcZH
Published Sunday, Mar. 06, 2011
Republican lawmakers in California continue to insist they bear no responsibility in helping to solve the state's $26.6 billion budget gap. It's a claim that is only slightly more credible than Charlie Sheen's commitment to clean living.
Taking responsibility for one's actions is elemental to any form of leadership. With only four days to go before Gov. Jerry Brown's 60-day deadline for the budget deal, Californians are waiting and wondering if any leaders will emerge from the Republican ranks.
As GOP lawmakers know all too well, four of their votes are needed – two from each house – so Brown can put a measure on the June ballot asking voters if they want taxes to be extended. Voters should have that chance, and polls suggest they want it.
Yet Republicans en masse are refusing to let the electorate decide on how this historic budget catastrophe can be lessened.
It is not as if each GOP lawmaker has assessed the trade-offs and come to a personal decision to deny voters have this right. They are operating in lockstep. Far too many are following orders from Grover Norquist, a Washington operative who has inserted himself into state budget battles nationwide by pressuring GOP lawmakers to sign no-tax pledge.
Here in California, the enforcer of the no-tax pledge is Republican Party vice chairman Jon Fleischman, publisher of the FlashReport. In a recent tweet, Fleischman said "it would be irresponsible for a GOP legislator to agree to put taxes on the ballot without assuming that the unions will pass them."
True, unions would likely put money into any ballot measure to extend tax increases, but it would be up voters – not unions – to decide the fate of any tax extension. Why doesn't Fleischman want to let voters make this decision? Is he scared they don't share his desire to starve government, further harming public schools and higher education?
The tyranny of the minority continues to hold California's budget hostage, even after years of cutting and reduced state spending. If Republicans don't let voters decide on this most crucial of decisions, it won't be long before voters pass an initiative allowing tax measures to be passed on a majority vote.
And what of this year?
If Republicans don't allow voters to decide, the governor and lawmakers will be forced into four possible choices, ranging from the catastrophic to the tortuous.
• An all-cuts budget. Without a tax extension, Brown insists he would attempt to reduce the entire $26.6 billion deficit through cuts, but we can't see how he could do that. We've played The Bee's "Budget Balancer" and see no way of cutting $26.6 billion without closing at least one state university, reducing the public school year by months or letting dangerous criminals out of prison. Any and all would be unacceptable.
• An all-gimmicks budget. Although Brown says that all the tricks and gimmicks have been used up, we suspect there are a few left. There always are. But that would only "kick the can" down the road for another year, leaving the state's credit rating in the tank.
• An end around. Democrats would attempt to put a tax extension on the ballot through a majority vote. Legally risky and politically toxic, such a move would spark an epic court battle and potentially turn California into the next Wisconsin.
• Impasse. We've seen this before – a budget stalemate that drags out for months, harming state contractors and further damaging California's national and international standing.
Any of these outcomes would be devastating for a state that already is reeling. But if any of them occur, Republican lawmakers will help own it. They can't escape responsibility, any more than Charlie Sheen can.
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